Current Slackening and Future Prospect of Rice Production in China

Wan Li

wanli@muses.tottori-u.ac.jp

Faculty of Agriculture, Tottori University

Abstract

In this research I analyze that the biggest cause of the dull rice production is reserved rice in recent years in China. The cyclical period of the total rice production area is 21 years, and that of the total amount of production is 13 years used time-series analysis. I think these periods were longer under the nation plan economy, and its will be shortening in market economy hereafter. I infer the rice demand quantity will be growth based increase of the food demand by the growth of China’s population, although the expansion of production areas will be difficulty from the decrease of the acreage under cultivation by economic development hereafter.