1.
Stock-to-use ratios (SUR) are calculated as a form
shown below:
SUR(%)
= (exports + total domestic consumption)/stock x 100
However, for the SUR of the
world total, exports are excluded in the equation.
2. Below, this is a general explanation
for the PS&D View from the USDA.
In this file, structure of each region is also shown toward
the end.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
THE PS&D DATABASE
The
Production, Supply, and Distribution (PS&D) database contains the official
data
on world production, stocks, trade, and consumption of major agricultural
commodities
for the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
It includes most of the
major
agricultural commodities and countries, although country and time
coverage
differ considerably among commodities.
The
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) maintains the database. The data
are
reviewed and updated regularly.
The international portion of the data is
updated
with input from agricultural attaches stationed at U.S. embassies
around
the world, FAS commodity analysts, and country and commodity analysts
with
ERS. The domestic component is
updated with input from analysts in ERS,
FAS,
the NationalAgricultural Statistical Service, and the Farm Service Agency
(formerly
Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service). Interagency
work
on the database is carried out under the aegis of the World Agricultural
Outlook
Board (WAOB).
The
PS&D data is published periodically in the Foreign Agricultural Circular
series
issued by FAS, in the regional situation and outlook reports and monthly
commodity
newsletters of ERS, and in the
WAOB's World Agricultural Supply and
Demand
Estimates.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PS&D VIEW SOFTWARE
The
TS ("Time Series") software used to view the PS&D data files was
designed
by
Karl Gudmunds and Alan Webb of USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS) and
programmed
by Karl Gudmunds. Its development
has benefitted greatly from the
feedback
of users within ERS and worldwide.
The
TS program is a DOS application that requires MS-DOS 3.0 or greater (or
compatible
operating systems), 300KB RAM and graphics capability. If running
TS
from within MS-Windows or IBM OS/2, then set the program icon reference to
start
TS as a full-screen session as TS initializes a graphics mode that will
suspend
a windowed session.
The
PS&D VIEW data and software package is available through subscription on an
annual,
quarterly, or monthly basis; call ERS's subscription service
1-800-999-6779.
It is also
available on the Internet, along with other USDA ERS data
products. See the USDA ERS Web site at http://www.econ.ag.gov
for information
and
data files.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PS&D VIEW FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS:
WHAT
IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PS&D VIEW AND TS?
PS&D View is the
name of the Economic Research Service's data product that
includes
USDA's Production, Supply, and Distribution (PS&D) database.
TS
(Time
Series) is the software ERS has designed to read the database in
PS&DView.
HOW
OFTEN IS PS&D VIEW UPDATED?
Grains, oilseeds, and
cotton = monthly,
appearing on the Internet Web sight about mid-month.
Sugar & the
livestock complex = twice annually,
appearing at the same time as the monthly crops data.
sugar,
estimated May and Nov., should appear in June and December.
livestock,
estimated March & Oct., should appear in April and
November.
ON
THE INTERNET, HOW DO I KNOW WHEN PS&DVIEW HAS BEEN UPDATED OR WHEN CHANGES
ARE
MADE?
A small file called
DATETIME.TXT indicates the date of the most recent
update
available on the Internet Web sight.
This DOC should appear near the
top
of the list of files.
Another small file
called ANNOUNCE.DOC will occassionally also appear near
the
top of the list of files to identify changes in or problems with TS or the
PS&D
data.
WHEN
DOES USDA FIRST FORECAST THE NEXT YEAR?
U.S. & world crop
totals = May.
Individual countries
for wheat and coarse grains = May.
Individual countries
for rice, oilseeds, & cotton = July
Livestock complex =
late October (appears on Internet w/ November data
release)
Sugar = late May
(appears on Internet w/ June data release)
HOW
DOES USDA'S DATA DIFFER FROM FAO'S?
USDA projects on a
marketing year basis (except for the livestock
complex); FAO uses
calendar years for all commodities.
USDA provides
projections and forecasts for the current season in
progress; FAO
releases data for a country and commodity mainly after the
season ends and
generally does not include forecasts for the year in
progress.
USDA estimates are
based on a number of available sources; FAO is required
to use a member
countries' official statistics.
WHAT
DATA DOES USDA USE?
USDA uses official
country statistics, reports from agricultural attaches
at
U.S. embassies, international organizations, publications from the country,
traders
both inside and outside the country, and other available information.
WHEN
DOES USDA USE ESTIMATES FROM A COUNTRIES' GOVERNMENT AND WHEN DOES IT USE
OTHER
SOURCES?
Most often, the
eventual "final" figure used by USDA is the official
figure
from the countries' government. In
some cases, another source may be
used
instead of the government because that source has over time proven to be
more
complete, more reliable, or more timely than the government source.
During the current
season in progress most data are forecasts. Some of
these
current year forecasts also are based on the countries' official
releases. For example, developed countries often
release timely, survey-based,
updates
as the producing season progresses.
They also release monthly trade
data
and some consumption and stock data during the season. USDA uses these
data,
except if a sharp change has altered the situation since the date of the
countries'
survey; then USDA will try to account for this change in its
forecasts. For most other countries the
current season is a USDA forecast
based
on progress reports from other sources.
ARE
PS&Ds FOR ALL COUNTRIES UPDATED EVERY MONTH?
For the commodities
updated monthly--grains, oilseeds, and cotton--usually
only
the most significant countries are considered each month and updated if
new
information is available. Other
countries are updated only when new
information
becomes available. PS&Ds for
many African countries are updated
only
twice a year--in May and about January.
WHEN
IS PS&D DATA A PROJECTION & WHEN DOES IT BECOME "FINAL"?
Because the
timing of release of
"final" estimates for each commodity
in
each country differs widely with the country and the commodity, at any given
point
in time some of the data in PS&D View for the last few years will be
forecasts. Updating with the countries' official
data could begin as early as
December
or January for some countries; but other countries are still revising
their
"final" figures as much as 2 or more years after the end of a season.
And if a country
never releases data for a given variable--ending stocks
for
example--then that data remains a USDA estimate based on the best
information
available. Additionally, a few
countries release little or no
information
at all or only very sporadic statements (North Korea for example).
Data
in the USDA data base for these countries is always a forecast.
WHAT
UNITS ARE USED IN PS&D VIEW?
All units are metric
unless otherwise noted.
GRAINS,
OILSEEDS, COTTON & SUGAR--
AREA = 1000 hectares
harvested, except
when
countries only release planted area data, then planted area data
is used
instead of harvested area even though it is labeled
"harvested area".
YIELD = tons per
hectare; (rice yield is, milled basis.)
PRODUCTION, TRADE,
& USE = 1000 metric tons,
rice =
milled basis (a separate column is provided for rough (paddy)
weight
rice), cotton = lint basis,
sugar = raw
basis or in raw sugar equivalents.
LIVESTOCK
COMPLEX--
Live animals are in
1000 head.
Red meat is in
carcass weight.
Poultry is in
ready-to-cook weight.
Eggs are in 1 million
count.
Number of egg layers
is in 1000 count.
WHY
DOESN'T THE PS&D VIEW WORLD TOTAL FOR THE LIVESTOCK COMPLEX INCLUDE EVERY
COUNTRY
IN THE WORLD?
For the livestock
complex the "world total" in PS&D View is the sum of
only
those countries included in the USDA database, which for livestock
includes
only representative countries. The
representative countries in the
USDA
database capture about 90 percent of world livestock trade. In USDA
livestock
publications, this sum is more correctly labeled a "selected country
total",
not a "world total".
WHICH
YEARS ARE USED FOR THE COMMODITIES IN PS&D VIEW & THE USDA DATABASE?
For the livestock
complex, the years listed are calendar years.
For grains, oilseeds,
& cotton, the year listed is the first year of the
countries'
local marketing year for that commodity (e.g. 1990 represents
1990/91).
But for sugar, the
year listed is the last year of the countries' local
marketing
year (e.g. 1990 represents 1989/90).
Local marketing years
differ by country and by commodity and therefore do
not
aggregate logically.
SO
WHAT ARE THE EXCEPTIONS TO THE YEARS IN PS&D VIEW?
For some
variables, in order to more accurately aggregate world totals,
the
years must be made consistent for all countries.
For GRAINS a STANDARD
TRADE YEAR has been created in the USDA database.
In
PS&D View, additional import & export columns have been added on the
far
right;
this is the grain trade data adjusted to a standard trade year. These
standard
trade years are the years on which the published USDA grain trade data
is
based. The standard grain trade
years are:
wheat =
July/June,
coarse
grains = October/September,
rice =
January/December calendar year following the marketing year
indicated
(e.g. 1990 shows standardized rice trade in the far right
columns for
1991).
For COTTON, all data
internal to each countries' supply and use balance is
adjusted,
wherever possible, to a STANDARD AUGUST/JULY year.
THEN
WHY DOESN'T THE STANDARD GRAIN TRADE DATA IN PS&D VIEW MATCH PUBLISHED
USDA
GRAIN TRADE?
Grain trade data used
by USDA is published in the monthly:
FAS,
Grain:World
Markets and Trade. This trade is
adjusted to a standard trade year
for
a consistent world total and also has been adjusted to exclude intra-EU
trade.
The standard grain
trade in the far right columns in PS&D View has not
been
adjusted to exclude intra-EU trade.
Although PS&D View data for area,
yield,
production, consumption, and stocks, and for other countries, are
identical
to the published USDA data, the standard grain trade for the EU and
any
aggregates including the EU such as world and foreign, differs from the
published
USDA data.
To obtain the most
recent 5 years of USDA's adjusted world grain trade
data,
go to the Internet Web sight http://www.fas.usda.gov for the FAS grain
circular
publication or call Grain Division, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA
(202-720-6219).
Additionally, the
grain data published in the monthly:
WAOB, World
Agricultural
Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE) for supply and use variables
other
than trade also are the same as the USDA data published in the FAS grain
circular. But WASDE's grain trade data also
differs because it is aggregated
on
the local marketing year basis (the same as the internal PS&D View grain
trade
data), has not been adjusted to the standard trade year, and includes
intra-EU
trade.
WHY
DON'T SOYBEAN ENDING STOCKS, AND SOMETIMES CONSUMPTION AND TRADE DATA, IN
PS&D
VIEW MATCH PUBLISHED USDA DATA?
The world soybean
supply and use data used by USDA is published in the
monthly: FAS, Oilseeds: World Markets
& Trade. This data adjusts
Brazil and
Argentina
from local marketing years to a standard October/September marketing
year
for a more consistent world total.
Thus, stocks for these two countries
and
the world are calculated as of September rather than as of the end of their
local
soybean marketing years (Feb/Jan and Apr/Mar).
In PS&D View, all
supply and use variables for Brazil and Argentina remain
on
the local marketing year basis and are not adjusted. Although the area,
yield,
and production data in PS&D View are the same as the published USDA
data,
ending stocks and trade for Brazil, Argentina, and any aggregates
including
either of these 2 countries, differ from the published USDA data.
To obtain the most
recent 5 years of USDA oilseeds ending stocks data go
to
http://www.fas.usda.gov for the monthly FAS Oilseeds circular publication or
call
Oilseeds Division, Foreign Agriculture Service, USDA (202-720-7037). Or
consult
the monthly publication WAOB, World Agricultural Supply & Demand
Estimates
(WASDE), which also contains adjusted USDA data for Brazil and
Argentina,
and can be found at on the Internet at
http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde.
WHY
DON'T WORLD & FOREIGN GRAIN CONSUMPTION SUM CORRECTLY FROM THE REGIONAL
TOTALS?
World & foreign
grain consumption, both published & in PS&D View, have
been
adjusted by the difference between imports and exports on the local
marketing
year on the assumption that trade at the world level should balance.
Regional
& country totals however, are not adjusted.
WHY
DO PS&D VIEW'S HISTORICAL DATA FOR EU LIVESTOCK SOMETIMES DIFFER FROM
PUBLISHED
USDA DATA?
The USDA data
published in FAS, Livestock & Poultry: World Markets &
Trade,
in some cases may not yet include all the countries of Finland, Sweden,
and
Austria, which in 1996 were added to the EC-12 to make EU-15. PS&D View
includes
all data in the USDA database for these countries in a complete EU-15
total.
To obtain USDA's
published data go to http://www.fas.usda.gov for
the bi-annual FAS Livestock
& Poultry circular publication or call Dairy, Livestock, &
Poultry
Division, Foreign Agriculture Service, USDA (202-720-8031).
WHY
DON'T PS&D VIEW'S BROILERS AND TURKEYS SUM TO TOTAL POULTRY?
"Broilers"
and "turkeys" in PS&D View include only the young or breeding
birds. Data on "older, spent birds"
and data on "ducks" are not available in
individual
time series by country for use in the USDA database or PS&D View.
However,
in the database and PS&D View "total poultry" has been adjusted
to
include
the available information on "older, spent birds" and, in countries
where
data is reported, "ducks".
WHY
IS THE COLUMN "IMPORTS FROM THE US" NOT ALWAYS UP-TO-DATE?
The column imports
from the U.S. is updated in USDA's database only once a
year
to avoid partial projections.
DEFINE
CONSUMPTION.
Consumption =
domestic use for feed, food, seed, industrial uses, and
waste. For oilseeds, consumption also
includes the amount crushed for oil and
meal
uses; but for oils and meals, seed is not a use.
DEFINE
USDA'S OILSEEDS AND MEALS. HOW
DOES TOTAL VEGETABLE OIL DIFFER FROM
TOTAL
OILS?
OILSEEDS
= soybean,
cottonseed, peanut, rapeseed (canola),
sunflowerseed, copra, and palm kernel.
OIL
MEALS= soybean,
cottonseed, peanut, rapeseed, sunflowerseed, copra,
palm kernel, and fish meal.
TROPICAL
OILS = coconut
oil, palm oil, and palm kernal oils.
VEGETABLE
OILS= soybean,
cottonseed, peanut, rapeseed, sunflowerseed,
coconut,
palm, palm kernel, and olive oils.
TOTAL
OILS = soybean, cottonseed,
peanut, rapeseed, sunflowerseed, coconut,
palm, palm kernel, olive, and fish oils.
DEFINE
USDA'S COARSE GRAINS.
Coarse grains include
corn, barley, sorghum, rye, oats, millet, and mixed
grains.
LATEST NEW
PS&D VIEW COUNTRY AND REGION DEFINITIONS & ORDER:
(all
CAPITALIZED countries & regions are listed separately in PS&D contents;
small
letters indicate composition).
~ Indicates regions, a sum to
be excluded when calculating ranks; except
! are other regions users
might want to include as indivdual countries for
rank
calculations.
* An attempt is made to place
all countries on the correct geographical
continent. Unfortunately, the Former USSR and new
RUSSIA data cannot be
divided and must be
placed in either Europe or Asia, not both; they're in
Europe. Thus the new EUROPE and ASIA & NEAR
EAST regions are
discontinuous prior
to 1987 when the series switch from the former USSR
data to the NIS (15
Republics of former USSR) data.
~WORLD
Foreign + US
~FOREIGN
World - US; includes, but will NOT add from: W Hem
(-US) + Europe + Africa + Asia & Near East + Oceania
~DEVELOPED
COUNTRIES Canada + US
+ EU + Oth W Eur + Israel + Rep S
Africa + Japan + Australia + New Zealand
~LESS
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
Foreign - Developed - Asian NICs - NIS (former
Sov
Un) - E Eur
~WESTERN
HEMISPHERE N.
Hem. Americas + S. America
~LATIN
AMERICA
Mexico + C America + Caribbean + S America
~NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE AMERICAS North America + Caribbean + Central America
~NORTH
AMERICA
CANADA
MEXICO
UNITED STATES
GREENLAND (geographically N.
America, despite politically Terr. of Denmark;
data
separate from Denmark)
~CARIBBEAN
BERMUDA
BAHAMAS
BARBADOS
CUBA
DOMINICA
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
FRENCH WEST INDIES
GRENADA
GUADELOUPE
HAITI
JAMAICA & DEPENDENCIES
MARTINIQUE
NETHERLAND ANTILLES
PUERTO RICO
ST. LUCIA
ST. KITTS & NEVIS
ST. VINCENT & GRENADINES
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO
~CENTRAL
AMERICA
BELIZE
COSTA RICA
EL SALVADOR
GUATEMALA
HONDURAS
NICARAGUA
PANAMA
~SOUTH
AMERICA TOTAL Argentina + Brazil +
Other South America
ARGENTINA
BRAZIL
~OTHER SOUTH AMERICA S. America -
Brazil- Argentina
BOLIVIA
CHILE
COLOMBIA
ECUADOR
FRENCH GUIANA
GUYANA
PARAGUAY
PERU
SURINAME
URUGUAY
VENEZUELA
~EUROPE* EU + Oth W Eur + E Eur + Baltics + Oth.
Eur. NIS + Russia* + former
USSR*
(prior to 1986)
(Excludes
Caucasus Republics + Central Asian Republics of NIS from
1987)
!EU-15
(European Union)
AUSTRIA
BELGIUM & LUXEMBOURG
DENMARK
FINLAND
FRANCE
GERMANY, UNITED (begins 1991)
Former FRG (ends 1990)
Former GDR (ends 1990)
GREECE
IRELAND
ITALY
NETHERLANDS
PORTUGAL
SPAIN
SWEDEN
UNITED KINGDOM
~OTHER
WESTERN EUROPE
FAROE ISLANDS
GIBRALTAR
ICELAND
MALTA & GOZO
NORWAY
SWITZERLAND
~EASTERN
EUROPE
ALBANIA
BULGARIA
Former CZECHOSLOVAKIA (ends 1991)
CZECH REPUBLIC (begins 1992)
SLOVAKIA (begins 1992)
HUNGARY
POLAND
ROMANIA
Former YUGOSLAVIA
BOSNIA-HERCEGOVINA (new country;
no data yet)
CROATIA (new country; no data
yet)
MACEDONIA (new country; no data
yet)
SLOVENIA (new country; no data
yet)
YUGOSLAVIA (Serbia + Montenegro;
new country; no data yet)
!NIS
(Newly Independent States) 15 FSU
Repbulics beginning 1987 + former
USSR ending 1986
RUSSIA
~BALTICS
ESTONIA
LATVIA
LITHUANIA
~OTHER EUROPEAN NIS REPUBLICS
BELARUS
MOLDOVA
UKRAINE
~CAUCASUS REPUBLICS (excluded
from Europe)
ARMENIA
AZERBAIJAN
GEORGIA
~CENTRAL ASIAN REPUBLICS
(excluded from Europe)
KAZAKSTAN
KYRGYSTAN
TAJIKISTAN
TURKMENISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
~AFRICA
TOTAL
Rep. S. Africa + SubSaharan
Africa + N. Africa
REPUBLIC
OF SOUTH AFRICA
~SUBSAHARAN
AFRICA
W. Af. + C. Af. + E. Af. + Southern Af.
(Excludes
Rep S Africa)
~WEST
AFRICA
BENIN
BURKINA
CAMEROON
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
CHAD
COTE D'IVOIRE
GAMBIA
GHANA
GUINEA
GUINEA-BISSAU
LIBERIA
MALI
MAURITANIA
NIGER
NIGERIA
SENEGAL
SIERRA LEONE
TOGO
~CENTRAL
AFRICA
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC
CONGO (BRAZZAVILLE)
EQUATORIAL GUINEA
GABON
SAO TOME & PRINCIPE
ZAIRE
~EAST
AFRICA
BURUNDI
DJIBOUTI & AFARS-ISSAS
ETHIOPIA
KENYA
RWANDA
SOMALIA
SUDAN
TANZANIA
UGANDA
~SOUTHERN
AFRICA
ANGOLA
BOTSWANA
COMOROS ISLANDS
LESOTHO
MADAGASCAR
MALAWI
MAURITIUS
MOZAMBIQUE
REUNION
SEYCHELLES
SWAZILAND
ZAMBIA
ZIMBABWE
~NORTH
AFRICA
ALGERIA
LIBYA
EGYPT
MOROCCO
TUNISIA
~MIDDLE
EAST & NORTH AFRICA Mid East + N Africa
~MIDDLE
EAST
BAHRAIN
CYPRUS
GAZA STRIP (new country; no data
yet)
IRAN
IRAQ
ISRAEL
JORDAN
KUWAIT
LEBANON
OMAN
QATAR
SAUDI ARABIA
SYRIA
TURKEY
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
WEST BANK (new country; no data
yet)
YEMEN, UNITED (begins 1991)
Former YEMEN, SOUTH (ADEN) (ends
1990)
Former YEMEN, NORTH (SANAA) (ends
1990)
~ASIA
& NEAR EAST* Asia + Mid. E. + Caucasus Republics + Central
Asian
Republics
~ASIA
& OCEANIA Asia + Oceania
~ASIA
Greater China + NE Asia + SE Asia + S Asia
~GREATER
CHINA
CHINA
HONG KONG
MACAU
~NORTHEAST
ASIA
JAPAN
KOREA, NORTH
KOREA, SOUTH
MONGOLIA
TAIWAN
~SOUTHEAST
ASIA
BRUNEI
BURMA/MYANMAR
CAMBODIA/KAMPUCHEA/KHMER REPUBLIC
INDONESIA
LAOS
MALAYSIA
PHILIPPINES
SINGAPORE
THAILAND
VIETNAM
~SOUTH
ASIA
AFGHANISTAN
BANGLADESH
BHUTAN
INDIA
MALDIVE ISLANDS
NEPAL
PAKISTAN
SRI LANKA
~OCEANIA Australia +
New Zealand + Other Oceania
AUSTRALIA
NEW ZEALAND
~OTHER
OCEANIA
FIJI
FRENCH POLYNESIA
KIRIBATI & TUVALU/GILBERT
& ELLICE ISLANDS
NEW CALEDONIA
PAPUA NEW GUINEA
SOLOMON ISLANDS
TONGA
VANUATU/NEW HEBRIDES
WESTERN SAMOA
~ASIAN
NICs (Newly Industralized Countries) Hong Kong + S Korea + Singapore +
Taiwan
~TRANSITIONING
ECONOMIES NIS (15
FSURepublics + former USSR) + E Eur
~REORIENTING
ECONOMIES Transitioning Economies +
China + Mongolia + Cambodia
+ Laos + Vietnam (Excludes N Korea & Cuba, so not
precisely = former
Centrally Planned)
~NAFTA Canada + Mexico + United States
~MERCOSUR
Argentina + Brazil + Paraguay + Uruguay
~OECD Australia + New
Zealand + Japan + NAFTA + Iceland + Norway +
Switzerland
+ Turkey + EU
~PECC
(Pacific Economic Cooperation Confernce)
NAFTA + Chile + Colombia + Peru + Brunei + China + Hong Kong + Indonesia
+
Japan + S Korea + Malaysia + Philippines + Singapore + Taiwan + Thailand
+
Vietnam + Russia + Australia + New Zealand + Papua New Guinea
~APEC
(Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum)
NAFTA + Chile + Brunei + China + Hong Kong + Japan + Indonesia + S Korea
+
Malaysia + Philippines + Singapore + Taiwan + Australia + New Zealand +
Papua New Guinea+Thailand
~ASEAN
(Association of Southeast Asian Nations)
Brunei + Indonesia + Malaysia + Philippines + Singapore + Thailand +
Vietnam
~CER
(Closer Economic Relations) Australia + New Zealand
~CER/AFTA
(CER & ASEAN Free Trade Area) CER + ASEAN
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
USDA CONTACTS
If
you have questions about the PS&D data, please contact:
Carol Whitton
(202) 694-5287
cwhitton@econ.ag.gov
USDA, ERS, room 5023
1800 M Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20036-5831
U.S.A.
If
you have questions about the TS software, please contact:
Karl Gudmunds
(202) 694-5029
karlg@econ.ag.gov
USDA, ERS, room 3004
1800 M Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20036-5831
U.S.A.
*** End of file ***